Saturday, August 4, 2007

Check if the money's where the mouth is

If money shows how serious people are about what they're doing, Slate may be monitoring most accurately which presidential candidates people think will win. They are monitoring the betting markets for presidential candidates. The description of how to read the tables are here, along with the raw numbers sorted by Republicans, Democrats, all candidates together, and by party.

I should note that real money is probably a better predictor than fake money, so if you're interested in the highest accuracy of people's impressions of the outcome, pay close attention to Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade. Since NewsFutures and Casual Observer are only monitoring fake money, I would disregard them in comparison to Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade, who are dealing in the real stuff.

Also, the graphs to the right of the tables that show the value per candidate are worth some note. As those lines steepen, it means that betters are gaining confidence in their candidates, whoever they are.

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